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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”