🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|